Confirmation bias refers to when people seek out information or data that will support the outcome that they want. When the opinion or belief at hand is close to a person's heart, that person is more likely to be more strongly effected by confirmation bias.
The way that people look for information and analyze and interpret information is influenced by their perspectives and beliefs.
According to an article titled "How the Confirmation Bias Affects Sports Betting," confirmation bias can lead to people becoming overconfident and it can cloud their decision-making causing them to behave more irrationally. Confirmation bias causes people to be unwilling to change their minds and can lead to rash decision-making.
According to an article titled "How Confirmation Bias Affects Sports Betting," humans tend to stick to what they know instead of changing their minds when new, supporting evidence arises. In the sports betting world, confirmation bias plays an extremely large role.
Confirmation bias in sports betting causes bettors to be stubborn and not want to change their ways. Bettors tend to want to stick to the same betting strategies and techniques, even if other strategies or resources have been made available.
While sports betting does have some amount of skill/knowledge involved, it is still considered betting/gambling and therefore involves a great deal of luck.
After a large winning streak, bettors might look for information that supports their current strategy, even though their winning streak may be the result of luck. Similarly, after a large losing streak bettors might write off their strategy because they feel that it is flawed or cursed.
For example, if a sports bettor is a die-hard Patriots fan and Tom Brady tears his ACL right before the playoffs, that sports bettor would not change his/her Super Bowl prediction because he/she would seek out other reasons that the Patriots would win. Instead of looking at all the information, including the other teams and their strengths, that sports bettor would be biased as a Patriots fan and make an irrational decision when placing a bet.
Counter-evidence is likely to present itself, but sports bettors will likely ignore that information/evidence if it does not align with their opinions. According to an article titled "Confirmation Bias," all sports bettors want to remember being successful so they are more likely to remember their wins and the strategies they used in those cases.
There are ways, however, for sports bettors to eliminate confirmation bias from having an effect on their betting. Sports betters should remain critical of their bets whether they win or lose.
Sports bettors should always examine and analyze information with an open-mind. They should try to look at the information from all points of view before placing any bets.
Sports bettors should stay away from using one specific strategy or technique and branch out to using multiple strategies to stay on top of the game. Sports bettors should know which strategies are working and which ones are not.
Talking with friends or other members of the sports betting community is a wise idea so bettors can see the given information from all perspectives and be able to place an unbiased bet.
Sports bettors should pay attention to the people who are betting on the opposing team. They should question why those people are placing their bets and why they are so confident about them.
According to an article titled "Confirmation Bias In Sports Betting," sports bettors may be ignoring evidence that could cause them to have an incorrect or ignorant point of view. Studies have shown that causal sports bettors fall victim to confirmation bias without even realizing it.
According to an article written by Jeff Ma titled "The betting mistakes we all make," so-called "expert" pick services are notoriously called out for and often guilty of confirmation bias as they reference random and meaningless trends that support their picks.
Although it is impossible to be completely objective when betting sports, bettors should try to be well informed and consider all perspectives.